Russian Delegation Visits Damascus, Begins Ties With New Syrian Government

The delegation, led by Mikhail Bogdanov, Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, and Alexander Lavrentiev, Putin’s special envoy for Syria, met with Abu Muhammad al-Julani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Damascus on January 28.

During the meeting, Al-Julani requested that the Russian delegation restore the lost trust by paying compensation and participating in the reconstruction of Syria.

For many years, Russia has been considered a supporter and partner in the leadership of Syria during the Assad family’s rule. During the Syrian war, Russia, along with Iran, played a significant role in changing the battle’s equation in favor of the central government. Russian airstrikes were a key factor in the militants’ defeat, and Russian military support inflicted significant losses on the militants. It appears that the new Syrian government has come to terms with Russia’s past support for Bashar al-Assad and attacks on militants, recognizing Moscow’s international influence and role in addressing future challenges.

Simultaneously with the presence of the high-ranking Russian delegation in Damascus, the Russian newspaper Tass, citing the Turkish newspaper Sabah, considered five possible scenarios for Syria’s future:

• The creation of the Syrian Democratic Republic by a coalition of opposition parties with ideological differences.
• The creation of the Islamic Republic of Syria by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra) and other terrorist groups.
• The creation of an anti-Shiite state under the support and control of the Zionist regime.
• The creation of a federal Syrian republic with regional and state governments under US supervision.
• The division and disintegration of Syria.

Syria is currently facing numerous intra-group and ideological differences, as well as economic, social, and security problems. The new Syrian government has not reached an agreement with the Syrian Democratic Forces, and the areas under SDF control remain outside the Damascus government’s control. Areas in southern Syria are also occupied by the Israeli army, and no specific time for the Zionist withdrawal from these areas has been announced, putting Syria at risk of disintegration.

While none of the above scenarios can be definitively predicted for Syria’s future, it is evident that Al-Julani is seeking to form a seemingly Islamic government with a strong presence of Tahrir al-Sham elements. This possibility has become stronger given recent appointments and actions.